Atmospheric modeling for estimating wind potential: a spatio-temporal assessment of the Northeast Region of Brazil
This work examines, on different aspects, the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model over the Northeast Region of Brazil to evaluate its performance in representing wind speed and direction. Thus, it seeks to stimulate the growth of the wind industry in the country and the improvement of the WRF. For that, three compositions of physical parameterizations are proposed, two focused on the comparison of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme used and one on the global model Global Forecast System (GFS), as well as verified its results in two horizontal resolutions, 3 and 9 km. The first two weeks of March and September 2018 are evaluated. The applied statistical analyzes are validated through observations provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), as well as by GFS analyzes. The results demonstrate that the YSU-PBL scheme, with the topo_wind option activated, provided, for the periods of study, the most reliable wind reproduction over the Northeast, as well as the arrangement based on the GFS parameterizations. The WRF presents a better performance, when compared to the other analyzed regions, above all, on the northeastern coast, a range of relevant wind potential and, therefore, of great applicability of the model.